February 21, 2014
Almost all American sources show little real. in-depth, historical understanding of Ukraine and Russia.
In simplest terms, the Ukraine today is pretty much split down the middle, very pro-Russian on the Eastern side of Kiev, the Russian side, and very pro-independence and pro-Polish and Pro-Western on the Western side of Kiev.
A large minority of the people in the East are originally from Russia, intermarried, speak Russian and Ukrainian, etc.
In the West many are Polish-Ukrainian, etc.
There are large sub-cultures within these two sides with ancient roots.
Ukraine is vastly important to Russia economically and Russia to Ukraine. Ukraine is a great bread basket. Russia supplies the energy to Ukraine.
The U.S. Empire is fighting globally to fend off the rising tides against itself, Putin is fighting more culturally and economically to try to rebuild the Russian Empire after the Soviet Implosion.
The U.S. is not likely to get directly involved in a war on Russia’s borders and Putin knows that. The U.S. is stirring up revolts against the new democracies that are against the U.S.–Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Iran, Ukraine…
But the U.S. is unable to do much directly and wants to avoid looking like the old-fashioned Empire it is.
Russia wants to avoid a direct confrontation that could isolate it more while it is rebuilding.
But Russia cannot let Ukraine ally with the West on its borders–period!
It might allow some autonomous, pro-Western area in the West. It might even allow a split down the middle, though I doubt it.
The U.S. is stirring up civil war to undermine Russia internationally IF the Ukrainian government has to use serious force to put down the Kiev riots, etc.
It looks like the government can easily sweep away the rioters with force, but that also raises the danger of more civil war from the Western half.
They are gradually increasing force, step by step, no massacre so far in spite of the U.S. media and pols.
I’d love to see the Ukrainians independent and free and a republic. But I doubt that is possible in this situation of U.S. Neo-Imperialism. IF the U.S. were not systematically trying to isolate and undermine Russia now, Putin might well allow more Ukrainian independence and regional diversity, but that looks too dangerous for Russia with the U.S. attacking on all fronts.
The situation in general and U.S. attacks have inflamed Russian nationalism and paranoia.
I think the Russians are willing to do what they must to keep the West away from their borders in the Ukraine from the far North to the Black Sea. They are just slowly escalating the fighting so far. We saw before what they can and will do in the South when necessary.
The Ukraine is far more important.
The special forces–shock troops—are ready if necessary.
I think the Ukrainian forces will be sufficient.
Jack D. Douglas [send him mail] is a retired professor of sociology from the University of California at San Diego. He has published widely on all major aspects of human beings, most notably The Myth of the Welfare State.
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